Remember the Citrini piece of ‘scenario analysis’ that went viral on social media on Sunday 22 February and hammered share prices of global software and cyber-security companies? The 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS.
That piece of ‘scenario analysis’ has by and large been discredited, but the damage was done and for many people (to use a phrase we have used over the years) ‘The Cockpit went dark.’
Over the years we have referred to and written about the importance of being able to value companies and assess risk and return IN REAL TIME. For us and our clients that is Apollo. Our systematic, valuation, risk and market timing model.
On ‘that day’ I wrote a post, here on Linkedin – ‘ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE’ and ran a screen of the top 10 Cyber security companies.
The title was, of course a reference to Monty Python’s classic song, but it was also an acknowledgement that as a consequence of investor uncertainty, a rare opportunity to buy was presenting itself, IF both the upside, but PARTICULARLY the downside could be quantified.
So, to quote myself on that day;
“we observed LOW (Apollo) risk of loss signals across more that half of the names. Not a surprise you may say, but when seen using the Apollo Margin of safety calculation, as I have mentioned before, those signals are very significant.
The Apollo Margin of Safety (MoS) gives users a continuous, objective assessment of the risk and reward of holding a position, long or short – in this case going back beyond Covid.
The image is the Apollo EDGE chart of Palo Alto as of today. Note the green dots ‘on that day’ when the share price was $144. Someone once told us that what they wanted to know was when to ‘back up the truck.’ That was one of those Need to Know moments.
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