On BalanceAs the (still ongoing) fallout from the market turmoil starts to be evaluated, there has been a natural temptation to rationalise and understand recent activity through the traditional lens of cause and effect: “… (A) market response to an (un)anticipated event occurred because Event X threatened to provoke subsequent (negative) Outcome Y and markets reacted […]
Welcome to the Weather Forecast
As we continue to roll out our Smart Alpha strategies, we are publishing a regular newsletter – the Weather forecast that looks at how Smart Alpha strategies can help navigate the current investment climate.
The team here at Libra Investment Services have been analysing global economies and markets for the best part of 40 years and, over that time have seen how the interaction of macro and micro trends, stock level financials and thematic and sector dynamics influence and, ultimately, drive the complex adaptive system that is the financial market. […]
In the same way that many investment advisors failed to sell certain stocks when the time arose (see previous posts) they may not have the skillset or process that allows them gauge when to buy. In markets such as this, an answer is to be found in Benjamin Graham’s Margin of safety. The principle of […]
In May 2007 the sector traded at €200. During the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) the sector hit a low of €24 in March 2009 and from that moment until September 2023, the sector was an investor’s graveyard. In October 2022 Apollo deep value signals appeared equivalent to the GFC and Covid period. A Need to […]
Investors thought they had entered the year with complete clarity. US exceptionalism being just one of those factors. Last years winners would be this year’s winners etc. Sure, there would be change under Donald Trump’s presidency but no-one forecast what has happened and would happen and for investors, to use an excellent analogy the cockpit […]
A series of individual stock concerns in both the US and Europe – think Glaxo Smith Kline, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, Eli Lilly, Smith and Nephew, Merck and even Novo Norsdisk added to the fact that the new Trump administration may not be friendly for the sector has seen the sector in a Trump Slump.
President Macron’s decision to call a snap election has had a dramatic effect on bond and equity markets to the extent that and even before Marine Le Pen offered a concilliatory olive branch, we were looking at some Indicators and signals coming from Apollo that might suggest some interesting investment opportunities are beginning to show […]
There are many reasons why our Smart Alpha process works so well and stands up to scrutiny.
We start with the investible universe and immediately ‘knock out’ the stocks we don’t want to own. Stocks are initially selected by Factor – a ‘bottom up’ selection process.
The Travel sector entered the re-rating phase on January 10 and since then the good news has just kept coming. When Factor risk changes you need to know especially when accompanied by our idiosyncratic signals of momentum and volatility (Accelerator and Risk Adjusted return signals). This combination forms the basis of our Smart Alpha strategy and why it works as well as it does. For as long as the sector is re-rating and there is an Acc long signal you know you are in a good place and when it changes, the dynamics of the stock / sector / market change.